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#19 - Bombs on Tehran, skyrocketing prices and Labubu that sent the supply chain into chaos
Jun 26, 2025
Edoardo Arbizzi
🌎 Global Outlook
🚁 Trump Bombs Iran: Procurement in the Perfect Storm
June 22, 2025 will be remembered as the day Trump brought out the heavy artillery. Operation Midnight Hammer: B-2 stealth bombers and Tomahawk missiles targeting three Iranian nuclear sites (Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan). The President's response was unambiguous: "Iran's key nuclear facilities have been completely and totally obliterated."
But what does all this mean for procurement? Well, brace yourselves for an interesting summer. 🔥
Oil prices are already going berserk: Brent crude has surpassed $76 per barrel (+4.4%) and JPMorgan analysts predict a peak at $130 if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow 34-kilometer waterway carries 20% of the world's oil—a strategic bottleneck that could strangle the global economy.
Iran has already signaled that parliament supports closing the Strait, but experts remain skeptical: "It would be economic suicide for Iran itself," declared Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, mere threats are already rattling markets.
For European procurement managers, the situation is critical: energy prices soaring, supply chains under pressure, and suppliers beginning to demand force majeure clauses. It's time to review contracts, diversify energy sources, and prepare for a summer of volatility.
🔗 Sources:
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/middle-east/live-blog/iran-israel-trump-rcna214325
https://www.axios.com/2025/06/21/us-strike-iran-nuclear-israel-trump
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/21/israel-iran-live-updates-us-trump/
https://www.axios.com/2025/06/22/iran-closure-strait-of-hormuz
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2025/06/22/oil-prices-iran-strait-hormuz/
📈 Europe: Inflation Down but Supply Chain Up
While missiles are flying in the Middle East, Europe is trying to keep its books in order. Eurozone inflation dropped to 1.9% in May 2025—finally below the ECB's 2% target. Good news? Not quite.
The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points but also issued a warning: "Uncertainty related to trade policies will weigh on investments and exports." Translation: prepare for economic growth deceleration.
France and Germany have called for scrapping the new EU supply chain audit law, concerned it could harm European competitiveness against the US and China. While inflation cools, compliance costs continue to rise.
For procurement managers, this means opportunities and challenges: lower rates facilitate investments, but weak economic growth could reduce budgets. It's time to optimize spending and focus on local suppliers to reduce geopolitical risk exposure.
🔗 Sources:
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-18062025-ap
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.mp250605~3b5f67d007.en.html
🖼️ Meme of the Day
🧠 Curiosities
🧸 Labubu-nomics: When a Supply Chain Collapses Over a Plush Toy
Who would have ever thought that a small Nordic elf with sharp teeth could bring entire global supply chains to their knees? Labubu, the character created by artist Kasing Lung, has become 2025's most unexpected phenomenon, transforming Pop Mart into a $44.4 billion colossus—larger than Mattel, Hasbro, and Sanrio combined.
The numbers are insane: in 2024, Labubu and "The Monsters" generated $400 million in revenue (+726% compared to 2023). Pop Mart had to cap production at 10 million units per month to avoid collapsing under demand. In the UK, the company withdrew all Labubu products from stores after customer brawls broke out on restock days.
The supply chain is at breaking point: over 70% of production comes from factories in Dongguan, Guangdong Province. Prices from Asian suppliers surge 30% in a single week, while Pop Mart's websites and apps regularly crash from excessive traffic. At a Yongle auction, a 1.3-meter Labubu sold for $150,324.
But what makes Labubu so special? The secret lies in the "blind box"—mystery boxes where you don't know what you'll find until opening. Some "Secret" models have only a 1 in 72 chance of being discovered. It's like a physical slot machine that has created mass addiction.
The procurement lesson: even the most improbable product can create global disruption. Pop Mart is diversifying production toward Vietnam and has opened over 450 stores worldwide. But when demand exceeds production capacity by 10x, even the most robust supply chain goes into meltdown.
🔗 Sources:
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