#27 - Chinese Drones Dominate Conflicts, the Olympics Head Into the Final Stretch, and the Cursed Guacamole

🚁 Chinese Drones on the Battlefield: Europe Scrambles to Catch Up (But It's Already Too Late)

October 2025: after two years of war in Ukraine and the recent ceasefire in Gaza (which took effect on October 10), Europe has finally opened its eyes to an uncomfortable reality. Chinese commercial drones have dominated modern conflicts, and Europe has no credible alternatives.

DJI controls 76% of the European consumer drone market and 94% of the enterprise market. But there's an even more worrying statistic: these same commercial drones are being converted for military use on the battlefield, and Europe is almost entirely dependent on Chinese technology.

The numbers speak for themselves: Russia produced 1.4 million drones in 2024, while Ukraine manufactured only 200,000. The gap is significant, and the EU had to scramble with the €1.5 billion Defence-AI Action Plan.

The regulatory shift came in December 2024: the EU approved new rules on defense procurement, requiring member states to purchase 50% of military equipment from within the Union by 2030 and 60% by 2035. The goal is to reduce dependence on suppliers outside Europe, China in particular.

The supply chain paradox: Europe wants to be independent, but building competitive drones requires batteries, motors, and advanced electronics. And all of that requires critical raw materials. Professor Andrea Gilli of Turin Polytechnic points out: “If we want a European drone industry, we need to be able to produce better batteries... That means lithium, cobalt, and all the materials China has a monopoly on.”

European companies like Parrot (France) and Quantum-Systems (Germany) are trying to close the gap, but it's an uphill battle. European production remains limited compared to Asian volumes, and costs are significantly higher.

The lesson for Procurement? Technological dependence on a single country for critical materials represents a strategic risk. Building alternative supply chains takes years and massive investment, but it's becoming increasingly necessary in an unstable geopolitical climate.

🔗 Sources: Procurement Magazine

🏅 Milan-Cortina 2026: When Procurement Has to Run Faster Than the Athletes

There are less than 4 months left until the Milan-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics (the opening ceremony is set for February 6, 2026 at the San Siro Stadium), and behind the media fanfare there's an organizational machine working at a frantic pace.

The numbers behind the project are impressive: 98 total works managed by SIMICO (Società Infrastrutture Milano Cortina 2020-2026), 67 of which are “legacy” works meant to remain as a permanent asset for the region. The total budget is €3.4 billion for infrastructure plus €1.7 billion for running the event.

But the progress is a cause for concern: according to the latest update from the “Open Milano Cortina 2026” platform as of July 31, 2025, only 8 of the 98 planned works have been completed. As of October 2025, construction sites in Milan are at 70% completion, while the situation is more critical at other venues.

Completed works include: the Aerials Moguls venue in Livigno, new cross-country skiing facilities in Anterselva, the renovation of the Eugenio Monti track in Cortina, the ski jump center and the Nicolaucich Pavilion of the Olympic Village in Predazzo, and the cross-country stadium in Tesero.

The challenges of Olympic Procurement are unique: you can't miss the deadline (there's no such thing as an “Olympic extension”), you can't accept lower quality standards (the whole world will be watching), and you need to coordinate dozens of different stakeholders (municipalities, regions, the Olympic committee, private suppliers) across 7 different competition venues: Milan, Cortina d'Ampezzo, Anterselva, Bormio, Livigno, Val di Fiemme, and Tesero.

The context is complicated further by other issues: in early October 2025, three people were arrested for attempting to infiltrate the Olympic contracts on behalf of organized crime, while several projects suffered delays due to geological and permitting issues.

The lesson? When the deadline isn't negotiable and the whole world is watching, Procurement becomes mission-critical. There's no room for improvisation: it takes meticulous planning, solid supplier relationships, and the ability to handle the unexpected quickly.

🔗 Sources: Sport e Finanza (1), Sport e Finanza (2)

🥑 The Cursed Guacamole: When the Supply Chain Becomes an Environmental Crime

Every year the United States consumes over 1 million tons of avocados. 80% comes from Mexico, worth $4 billion. And behind every Instagrammable toast there's a story nobody wants to tell.

The numbers: between 2014 and 2023, avocado farming caused the deforestation of 40,000-70,000 acres of forest between Michoacán and Jalisco. A 2023 investigation by Climate Rights International revealed that giants like Calavo Growers, Mission Produce, and West Pak Avocado were buying from orchards on illegally deforested land. These avocados ended up on the shelves of Costco, Kroger, Target, Trader Joe's, Walmart, and Whole Foods, labeled as “sustainable”.

The turning point came in September 2025: the Mexican industry signed an agreement with the federal government. Starting January 2026, avocados from illegally deforested land can no longer be exported. By 2030, the goal is zero global deforestation.

How does it work? A traceability system has been in place since 2020: every avocado can be tracked by barcode from the orchard to export. The Guardian Forestal platform monitors land and identifies orchards on deforested areas from 2018 onward. Anyone seeking the “Pro-Forest Avocado” certification must vet all suppliers and cut out those operating on deforested land.

The gray area: orchards planted on deforested land between 2018-2024 can still qualify if they offset the environmental damage. Only land deforested from 2025 onward will be permanently banned.

The debate: the industry says only 3-5% of production is on deforested land and calls it “sensationalist coverage.” Investigators respond: “It's a serious mistake to underestimate the severity: deforestation, water scarcity, and ties to organized crime.”

The real cost: 800 liters of water per 1 kg of avocado. 2.4 kg of CO2 per kg. When native forests become monocultures, we lose biodiversity, water regulation, and carbon storage.

The lesson: 85% of Mexico's 54,000 orchards should qualify in 2026. The remaining 15% will have to offset the damage or exit the market. Avocado buyers will need to start asking: where does this come from? Does it have deforestation-free certification?

Because that avocado toast at Sunday brunch might cost a lot more than you think.

🔗 Sources: Supply Chain Dive, Supply Chain Digital, CRI