#40 - Oil prices still soaring, power-hungry AI, supply chains under attack

Today we discuss why the USA-Iran agreement won’t bring crude prices back to pre-war levels, AI's energy impact, and new threats to supply chains.

Three stories, one common thread: the cost of everything (energy, security, trust) is rising, and Procurement is on the front lines to absorb the shock.

Oil: there’s a deal, but barrel prices will remain high until year-end

It felt like a moment of relief. On June 14, United States President Donald Trump announced a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran to remove the American naval blockade on Iranian ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, returning 15–20% of the global supply of oil and liquefied natural gas to circulation. Markets sighed with relief: Brent fell below 80 dollars a barrel, after exceeding 110 in May.

Too bad traders are getting ahead of themselves. Reopening the Strait isn’t enough: ships need to reach their destinations, and production and refining processes must restart, all of which takes time. According to Kpler, a company that tracks shipping and commodity flows via satellite, there are 118 fully loaded tankers stuck in the Gulf, and mine-clearing operations will make them leave much more slowly than usual. Analysts cited by The Economist estimate Gulf production will reach 30–50% of February’s levels by mid-July, 60–70% by mid-September, and 80–90% only by year-end.

The real risk for buyers is the long tail on prices. Morgan Stanley (via The Economist) foresees a supply shortfall of 3.4 million barrels a day in the third quarter and Brent averaging $90 between July and September, $80 in the last quarter: about $20 more than estimated in February. Rystad Energy adds that the risk of renewed tensions could keep a premium of up to $10 a barrel for a long time.

🔗 Sources: Economist, CBC

Oil is down from the highs reached during the war, but we’ll have to forget about $60 a barrel for quite some time. Morgan Stanley estimates Brent will average $90 between July and September and $80 in the last quarter, well above pre-conflict levels. Anyone planning energy budgets and contracts should keep that in mind.

AI is hungry for energy; now electricity is the real bottleneck

For months, we focused on chips. The real limitation for AI today is electricity. US hyperscalers are expected to spend some $800 billion this year to build data centers, but erecting them on land is increasingly difficult. Electricity and equipment are in short supply, local communities are pushing back, and some US states have already banned or are considering banning new construction.

How critical is it? This much: SpaceX, which went public on June 12 with the largest IPO ever (raising $75 billion, and making Elon Musk, its founder, the first trillionaire in history), is also selling investors on the idea of putting servers directly in orbit, where the sun is plentiful and there are no neighbors. Among customers already renting computing capacity from its ground-based Colossus data center are Anthropic and Google. Sci-fi or not, it says a lot about the value of energy capacity now.

Back on Planet Earth, the consequence for buyers is real: securing energy requires upfront financial commitments. On June 13, supplier Switch increased its credit lines to almost $10 billion (over $6 billion revolving and $3.5 billion in letters of credit) specifically to support energy procurement and give utilities the financial guarantees they demand before allocating power. As CFO Madonna Park explains, the company has built an integrated platform that brings together campus development, energy procurement, and data center design. Getting electricity has become a prerequisite for construction.

🔗 Sources: Economist, Procurement Magazine

The supply chain is the new target for cyber attacks: 43% hit, but only 6% thoroughly vet suppliers

Hackers have changed tactics: rather than breaking through the front door, they’re coming in through a supplier’s window. According to the UK government’s Cyber Breaches Survey, 43% of companies suffered a breach or attack last year. Yet only 15% formally assess the cyber risks of their direct suppliers, and just 6% push due diligence beyond the first level of the chain.

“Risk sits in the supply chain, which is exactly where attackers are moving, and these numbers show the vast majority of companies have virtually no visibility,” warns Muhammad Yahya Patel of Huntress. Phishing makes things worse, hitting 38% of companies and being the most disruptive incident for 69% of those breached. And here comes AI: “It’s expanding the attack surface faster than firms can track it,” notes Patel. He adds: “When three out of four companies experimenting with AI don't have any security framework in place, you’re building on shaky ground.”

There’s no shortage of real cases. Marks & Spencer in April 2025 suffered six weeks of digital shutdown and about £300 million in lost revenue; in September 2025, JLR halted production at key plants (Solihull, Halewood, and Wolverhampton), with cascading impacts on suppliers linked to its systems. From Maersk and the 2017 NotPetya attack ($300 million in damages), the lesson remains the same: you need business continuity, patch management, and tested plans. No wonder the share of firms reporting financial losses from cyber incidents has more than doubled from 2% to 5% in a year.

🔗 Sources: Supply Chain digital (I), Supply Chain Digital (II)

Your opinion matters!

Have feedback to share?

Write to us at compribene@compri.ai and let us know what you think! We’re here to listen and make Compri Bene ever more useful and engaging.

The Compri Bene team