#48 - Ships back at Suez, inflation at 5.4% and the EUDR at year end

Today we look at container ships returning to the Suez Canal, procurement leaders betting on AI without yet having clarity on roles, Italian inflation driven by energy, and the EUDR regulation ready to apply from 30 December.

According to Drewry, the return via Suez shortens transit times and frees up capacity, while carriers try to apply base rate increases in mid-November. The short-term risk concerns European ports: ships arriving at the same time from both routes can create congestion and unloading delays.

The return coincides with negotiations on 2027 transport contracts. More capacity in circulation and shorter voyage times can push freight rates down, while today's prices still reflect almost three years of long routes: those who buy components and semi-finished goods in Asia have room to negotiate.

For Fareen Mehrzai, senior director analyst at Gartner, bringing AI into a function is "fundamentally a role redesign challenge". According to Gartner, the most exposed tasks are standardised, mid-skill ones, and those who postpone the reorganisation risk leaving people without a clear path. There are three recommendations:

• review roles together with employees, deciding which responsibilities belong to people and which should be delegated to AI
• regularly assess technical and personal skills, strengthening creativity, influence, flexibility and ethical judgement before they weaken
• create a protected space where the team can try out tools and workflows, treating failed experiments as part of learning

In our reading, the most affected figure is the operational buyer, who today spends a good part of the day on standard activities. When AI enters those processes, the practical question is about who does the buyer's job: which decisions stay with the person, which skills they need to strengthen and practise, and who explains to them how their work is changing. Clarifying this as early as possible makes adoption faster and reduces resistance.

The breakdown shows where the push comes from. Regulated energy grows 59.5% (from +25.8% in September), non-regulated energy 29.4% (from +22.5%), goods overall 7.5%. Core inflation, excluding energy and fresh food, stays at 2.0%. The index measures prices paid by households, and companies point in the same direction: in the S&P Global manufacturing PMI for October, down to 49.4, input costs are growing at the fastest pace in four months, with energy among the items cited.

For those who buy, an inflation rate concentrated on energy has a precise consequence: in the coming months many increase requests will be justified by this cost item, and once they enter the base price they tend to stay there even when the cost of energy falls.

The timeline confirmed by the European Commission:

• 30 December 2026: large and medium companies, plus micro and small companies in the wood sector
• 30 June 2027: all other micro and small companies, meaning those with fewer than 50 employees and annual turnover linked to the products concerned below 10 million euros
• 30 December 2027: products added to the list by Delegated Regulation (EU) 2026/2102, in force since 18 September

Under the revision approved in December 2025, the statement is due only from whoever first places the product on the market; those who buy it and resell or process it afterwards do not have to submit it. According to the Commission's estimate (May 2026), the simplifications introduced since 2023, including the latest measures, will reduce annual compliance costs by about 75% compared with the original text.

The same Delegated Regulation also narrowed the list of covered products: bovine leather, conveyor belts and other vulcanised rubber articles drop out, while for retreaded tyres only the new tread remains covered. Packaging used to support, protect or carry another product, samples, used products and waste remain excluded. From 30 December 2027, instant coffee, frozen bovine tongue and some palm oil derivatives come in instead.

The EUDR therefore reaches purchases of wood and derivatives (including wooden furniture and seating), paper and cardboard, natural rubber and tyres. Those who import directly from a non-EU supplier are the first to place the product on the market and must submit the statement. Those who buy from a European supplier receive the reference numbers of the statements: companies that are not SMEs must verify them if a well-founded doubt arises, before reselling or exporting.

Compri moves Procurement in manufacturing companies from operational work to work that creates value: negotiation, supplier management, spend analysis.

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November and December are the months in which the conditions for 2027 are set. On transport from Asia it pays to stay flexible while the Suez Canal sees container ships transit again. On energy-related increases it pays to accept only the justified share and keep it separate from the base price. On AI it pays to clarify early who does what in the team, and on the EUDR there is little more than a month and a half left to map the covered products.