The numbers speak for themselves: 3 billion toys sold annually in the US, generating a total economic impact of 155.7 billion dollars according to The Toy Association. The global market reached 121.3 billion in 2025, with 7% growth in dollar terms. But pay attention: growth in units sold was only 3%. The rest? Pure inflation, passed on from tariffs to the end consumer.
Christmas 2025 confirmed what procurement managers have always known: toys are “recession-resilient.” Even when family budgets collapse, parents sacrifice other expenses rather than disappoint their children. That is what saved the sector: not strategy, but the emotional nature of the product.
⏱️ Inside toy Procurement: when timing is everything
Toy Procurement is a race against time built on three pillars: geographic sourcing, lead time, and risk management. In 2025, all three broke down.
Sourcing: China still produces 78% of the toys sold in the US. Major players such as Mattel and Hasbro have spent years diversifying: Mattel reduced its Chinese production from 50% to 40% in 2025, focusing on Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Mexico. Hasbro cut its share from 90% in 2012 to 50% in 2024, with a target of under 40% by 2026. But SMEs, which represent 96% of the sector, have neither the capital nor the time for these pivots. The result: up to 50% of small and medium-sized businesses risk closure.
Lead time: Traditionally, Christmas Procurement begins in January-February, with orders placed by May to arrive in August-September. In 2025, that timeline collapsed. Data shows that October imports, traditionally the peak, were 15% lower than last year. Retailers, terrified by uncertainty over tariffs, delayed orders until September-October, demanding just-in-time deliveries. For buyers, this meant compressing 9 months of planning into 2-3 operational months.
Suppliers and the cost/risk trade-off: The “China-plus-one” strategy - shifting production to Vietnam, India, or Mexico to reduce exposure to China - imploded when Trump imposed 46% tariffs on Vietnam in April 2025. Those who had bet on Vietnam as a Plan B found themselves facing unsustainable costs. Mattel, more forward-looking, had built a 200,000-square-meter “super-plant” in Mexico, near its second distribution hub in Texas. But Mexico was also hit with 25% tariffs.
The final trade-off? Absorb the costs or pass them on to the consumer. The second option won: retail prices rose by 25-30%, with products that cost 10 dollars in 2024 being sold at 14.99 dollars in 2025.
